The Arbitrage-free Valuation of Durable Assets and Related Real Options

Abstract

Valuing durable assets is essential for informed decisions on acquisitions, dispositions, budgeting, and borrowing, yet remains challenging due to illiquidity, heterogeneity, and subjective assessments. We propose a valuation model based on the no-arbitrage option pricing theory that outperforms traditional hedonic methods both in- and out-of-sample, remains robust under changing market conditions, and can price real options on durable assets. Our model has broad utility - detecting arbitrage, informing refinancing de-cisions, valuing collateral, and assessing whether securitized asset prices reflect underlying values. This forward-looking, market-sensitive approach addresses key limitations of conventional methods and improves decision-making across investment, lending, and financial reporting contexts.

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